time series
Stationary Processes
You should know: probability measure, markov chains, fourier series
Overview
A stationary stochastic process is one whose statistical properties do not change over time. Strict stationarity requires all finite-dimensional distributions to be time-shift invariant; wide-sense (weak) stationarity requires only a constant mean and a covariance function that depends only on the lag. Stationary processes are fundamental to time series analysis, signal processing, and ergodic theory. The Wiener-Khinchin theorem connects the autocorrelation function to the spectral density via the Fourier transform, providing a frequency-domain analysis tool.
Intuition
A stationary process looks the same statistically at any time: its mean does not trend, its variance does not grow, and the correlation between values at times s and t depends only on their distance |t-s|, not on the absolute times. Think of a machine in steady state: measuring it today or tomorrow yields the same statistical picture. The spectral density decomposes the variance of the process by frequency, just as a prism decomposes white light into a spectrum. High spectral density at a frequency means the process oscillates strongly at that frequency.
Formal Definition
A process {X_t} is strictly stationary if all finite-dimensional distributions are shift-invariant. Wide-sense (weak) stationarity requires weaker conditions.
Notation
| Notation | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Autocorrelation (autocovariance) function at lag h | |
| Spectral density (power spectral density) at frequency f | |
| Normalized autocorrelation: rho(h) = R(h)/R(0) |
Theorems
Worked Examples
- 1
E[X_t] = 0 (since E[A] = E[B] = 0). Compute the autocovariance.
- 2
The autocovariance depends only on h, so the process is wide-sense stationary. Its spectral density is the Fourier transform of R(h).
✓ Answer
The process is wide-sense stationary with ACF R(h) = sigma^2 cos(2 pi f_0 h) and spectral density consisting of two Dirac deltas at frequencies +/-f_0.
Practice Problems
Is Brownian motion W_t wide-sense stationary? Justify your answer.
The spectral density of a wide-sense stationary process is S(f) = 1/(1 + (2 pi f)^2). Find the corresponding autocovariance R(h).
Common Mistakes
Wide-sense stationarity implies strict stationarity
Wide-sense stationarity is weaker; it only constrains the first two moments. Strict stationarity constrains all finite-dimensional distributions. For Gaussian processes, they are equivalent.
The spectral density S(f) must integrate to 1
The spectral density integrates to R(0) = Var(X_t), the total variance of the process, not to 1.
Quiz
Historical Background
The concept of stationarity was developed in the context of time series analysis and signal processing in the early 20th century. Norbert Wiener and Aleksandr Khinchin independently proved the theorem relating autocorrelation to spectral density in the 1930s. The ergodic theorem, proved by Birkhoff in 1931, showed that time averages equal ensemble averages for ergodic stationary processes. These results laid the foundation for modern signal processing, spectral analysis, and statistical time series methods.
- 1931
Birkhoff proves the ergodic theorem for stationary processes
George Birkhoff
- 1934
Khinchin proves the autocorrelation-spectral density theorem
Aleksandr Khinchin
- 1930s
Wiener develops the theory of stationary processes and spectral analysis
Norbert Wiener
Summary
- A wide-sense stationary process has constant mean and autocovariance R(h) = Cov(X_t, X_{t+h}) depending only on lag h.
- The Wiener-Khinchin theorem: S(f) = Fourier transform of R(h), decomposing process variance by frequency.
- The ergodic theorem: for ergodic processes, time averages converge to ensemble averages.
- Bochner's theorem characterizes valid autocovariance functions as positive semi-definite functions.
References
- BookDurrett, R. -- Probability: Theory and Examples, 4th ed.
- BookPapoulis, A. -- Probability, Random Variables, and Stochastic Processes
Mathematics