Mathematics.

foundations of probability

Sample Space and Events

Probability30 minDifficulty3 out of 10

You should know: set basics

Overview

In probability theory, the sample space of an experiment or random trial is the set of all possible outcomes or results of that experiment. A sample space is usually denoted using set notation, and the possible ordered outcomes, or sample points, are listed as elements in the set. It is common to refer to a sample space by the labels S, Ω, or U. The elements of a sample space may be numbers, words, letters, or symbols, and can be finite, countably infinite, or uncountably infinite. An event is any subset of the sample space — a collection of outcomes we're interested in assigning a probability to.

Intuition

Before you can talk about the probability of anything, you first have to nail down exactly what outcomes are possible. Rolling a six-sided die, the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6} — every possible thing that could happen. 'Rolling an even number' isn't itself an outcome; it's a group of outcomes, {2,4,6}, carved out of the sample space. That grouping is what mathematicians call an event. Sample spaces can be small and countable (a coin flip: {H,T}), infinite but countable (the number of trials until a coin first lands heads: {1,2,3,...}), or uncountable (the exact arrival time of a bus, a continuum of real numbers).

Formal Definition

Definition

The sample space Ω of a random experiment is the set of all possible outcomes. An event A is any subset of Ω, i.e. A ⊆ Ω. The set of all events forms an event space (typically a σ-algebra) on which a probability measure P is defined, satisfying P(Ω) = 1 and P(∅) = 0.

Ω={ω1,ω2,}\Omega = \{\omega_1, \omega_2, \ldots\}

The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment

Sample space
AΩA \subseteq \Omega

An event is any subset of the sample space

Event
P(Ω)=1,P()=0P(\Omega) = 1, \quad P(\varnothing) = 0

The whole sample space has probability 1; the impossible event has probability 0

Notation

NotationMeaning
Ω\OmegaThe sample space (also written S or U)
ω\omegaA single outcome (sample point) in the sample space
AΩA \subseteq \OmegaAn event — a subset of the sample space
AcA^cThe complement of event A — all outcomes not in A
ABA \cup BEvent 'A or B occurs'
ABA \cap BEvent 'A and B both occur'

Properties

Complement rule

P(Ac)=1P(A)P(A^c) = 1 - P(A)

Addition rule

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

Mutually exclusive events

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B)

Condition: when A \cap B = \varnothing

Monotonicity

AB    P(A)P(B)A \subseteq B \implies P(A) \le P(B)

Applications

Modeling all possible outputs of a randomized algorithm as a sample space is the starting point for analyzing its expected running time or error probability.

Worked Examples

  1. List all ordered outcomes for two coins.

    Ω={HH,HT,TH,TT}\Omega = \{HH, HT, TH, TT\}
  2. Identify which outcomes have at least one head.

    A={HH,HT,TH}A = \{HH, HT, TH\}

Answer: Ω = {HH, HT, TH, TT}; A = {HH, HT, TH}, so P(A) = 3/4.

Practice Problems

Difficulty 2/10

A single card is drawn from a standard 52-card deck. Describe the sample space and find P(the card is a heart).

Difficulty 3/10

If A and B are mutually exclusive events with P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.4, what is P(A ∪ B)?

Difficulty 4/10

A batch of 50 steel bolts contains 3 defective ones. If one bolt is drawn at random, what is the sample space and the probability of drawing a defective bolt?

Common Mistakes

Common Mistake

Treating an event and an outcome as the same thing.

An outcome is a single element of Ω; an event is a subset (possibly containing many outcomes, one outcome, or even zero outcomes).

Common Mistake

Applying P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) even when A and B overlap.

This double-counts the overlap. The general addition rule subtracts the intersection: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).

Quiz

For two mutually exclusive events, P(A ∪ B) equals:
The sample space of a random experiment is:

Summary

  • The sample space Ω is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
  • An event is any subset of the sample space.
  • P(Ω) = 1 and P(∅) = 0; probabilities are monotone with respect to subset inclusion.
  • The general addition rule is P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B), which simplifies when A and B are mutually exclusive.
  • Sample spaces can be finite, countably infinite, or uncountable, depending on the experiment.

References